Behind the Numbers: Responding to Questions About "The Coming Storm"

"Where Are Your Sources?"

Several readers asked about sources. Here's what "The Coming Storm" was based on:

I spent six months investigating this crisis, drawing from official government statistics, UN reports, academic research, and interviews with farmers, water officials, and migration experts across the Mediterranean. Key documents include the Cyprus Water Development Department reports, the Auditor-General's 2025 water management review, DEFRA's food security data, and World Bank climate projections.

For journalists or researchers who want to dig deeper, I'm happy to share research notes. Contact me through the site.

"This Is Propaganda!"

Several people accused me of pushing an agenda, especially the Iran sanctions bit. Someone said I was "fearmongering" about migration.

Here's the thing. I'm using official government data. UN reports. Peer-reviewed research. If the data makes certain policies look bad, that's not me being propagandistic. That's just what the numbers show.

About the fearmongering charge... I literally presented three different scenarios. The most likely one has 50,000 to 75,000 extra asylum seekers annually in the UK. That's significant, sure, but it's not the apocalypse. I even included an optimistic scenario where technology saves us all. How is that fearmongering?

The Iran thing really triggered people. But water doesn't care about borders. Iran uses the same rivers as Iraq and Syria. When they can't get efficient irrigation tech because of sanctions, they use more water. Less flows downstream. Syrian farmers lose their crops. Where do you think those farmers go? This is basic cause and effect, not politics.

Actually, you know what? If documenting how sanctions block water-saving technology makes you uncomfortable, good. Maybe you should be uncomfortable. Reality doesn't care if it conflicts with your worldview.

"Just Ship Water From Somewhere Else"

This suggestion came up constantly. Shows how disconnected people are from basic economics.

There's no international bulk water market. You know why? Math.

Water weighs a ton per cubic meter. Literally. The EU studied this (AquaDuct project) and found shipping costs run €8-12 per cubic meter for medium distances. Some company proposed shipping from Alaska to India for €18/m³.

Cyprus pays €1.67/m³ for desalinated water right now. Farmers need it under €1/m³ to stay profitable. See the problem? Even the cheapest shipping option is 8 times too expensive.

The only way we "trade" water internationally is through food. Spanish tomatoes are basically packaged Spanish water. Global average is 215 liters per kilogram, if you're counting. But that only works if Spain has water to spare. Which they increasingly don't.

"Britain Should Just Grow Its Own Food"

The "just grow your own" crowd clearly hasn't looked at the numbers.

Britain has 17.2 million hectares of farmland. Divide by 68 million people. That's 0.25 hectares each.

The Netherlands makes it work with 0.11 hectares per person, someone pointed out. True! They also import 70% of their food by value. And they have the most intensive greenhouse agriculture on the planet.

Could Britain theoretically feed itself? I guess, if you:

• Converted every sheep pasture to vegetables
• Built greenhouses on a massive scale
• Convinced everyone to give up most meat
• Got lucky with weather every single year
• Maybe asked 20-30 million people to leave?

Britain hasn't been truly food self-sufficient since the early 1800s when the population was around 15 million. Even in the late 1930s with 46 million people, we were only 75-80% self-sufficient. Just saying.

Why I Included Iran

"Why bring Iran into a Mediterranean article?" Because water systems are connected, that's why.

The Tigris and Euphrates flow through Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. When Iran can't import drip irrigation systems because of banking sanctions (documented by the UN Special Rapporteur in 2023 and Reuters in January 2024), they waste water upstream.

Less water flows to Iraq and Syria. Farmers there go broke. They move to cities. Cities can't handle the influx. Social pressure builds. Sometimes it explodes into conflict. Those people end up trying to reach Europe.

It's like a line of dominoes. Pretending the first domino doesn't matter because it's far away is just willful blindness.

"But Spanish Reservoirs Are at Historic Highs!"

One commenter swore they checked and Spain's reservoirs were completely full.

Here's what actually happened. Spain's reservoirs were at 58% in early March when Catalonia declared its emergency. Then they had a wet spring. By late June, national storage hit 74%. Sounds great, right?

Except look at the regional numbers:

• Andalusia: 41% (normally 52% this time of year)
• Catalonia: 47% (was down to 16% in February!)
• Murcia: 39% (normally 48%)

The southeast is still in crisis. But sure, tell me more about those "historic highs."

"It's Only 17% Less Rain"

This one drives me crazy. "Only 17% less rainfall since 1900, what's the big deal?"

Water systems don't work linearly. A 17% drop in rain typically means:

• 30-40% less water reaching reservoirs
• Half the normal aquifer recharge
• 60-70% less soil moisture when crops need it most

It's like saying your body temperature is only 17% higher than normal. That would put you at 46°C. You'd be dead.

Cyprus has 26% of normal reservoir capacity right now. Not because rain is down 74%. Because small changes compound through the system.

What Happens Next

I'm not saying Mediterranean collapse is guaranteed. I'm saying current responses are completely inadequate for the scale of what's happening.

Look, we can argue about exact timelines. We can debate solutions. But pretending the problem doesn't exist? That's just stupid.

Tomorrow I'll examine the cubic kilometer problem and why Cyprus's new desalination units are mathematical fantasy.